Tokyo 2020 Wheelchair Basketball: Day 1 Round-Up
Trying not to overreact on a day where every team has either won or lost 100% of their games.
Every day throughout the Tokyo 2020 Paralympics, I will be bringing you a round-up of the goings-on in the Wheelchair Basketball event. My Bench Units co-host, James MacSorley, is actually competing in the Paralympics and so has better things to do than write up details of the games.
As you may know, the Tokyo Paralympics are taking place in Tokyo. Tokyo is 8 hours ahead of the UK, so some of the games are happening in the dead of the night for me.
I’m making it my mission to watch as many of the games as I can so I can do the best possible write-ups here. If I don’t get the chance to watch a game, I’ll state that up front and my review will be based on the stats, plus any educated guesses I might have, or anything that sounds plausible enough that I can say I heard it from James and blame him if it’s incorrect. I promise I’m not biased for or against any teams.
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Let’s get into it…
Important takeaway from Day 1
At this point, every team that has played in the tournament has winning percentage of either 100 or 0, with too small of a sample size in quality of opponent to gauge a huge amount from either outcome.
That is to say that, this early, we’re in a weird phase where the result might tell you anything from quite a lot to not a lot at all, and the same is true of the eye test. That’s just the way it is.
With how tough it can be to get a feel for teams this early, what I try and do is look back through the stats and look for any numbers that really fall in line with what I would expect from a team or if there’s anything that’s a huge outlier (for better or worse). It might just be a random, one-off statistical fluke, but keeping an eye on it for at least the next couple of group stage games might give you a little extra insight on who the team really is.
Algeria 25 - 74 China (Women)
1am UK Time. Did not watch.
No disrespect to either team involved in this one, but I didn’t fancy staying up for the 1am tip-off when I was confident that I could predict the result here.
China are 4th in the world in the Women’s game, while Algeria are 12th. Massive gulf in class and talent, as evidenced by Algeria having one player score in double figures (Khemgani - 13) to China’s four (Zhang - 20, Dai - 16, Lin - 14, Lyu - 12).
That kind of imbalance in scoring is tough to overcome, and gave China a decisive win. Interestingly, they had two players who didn’t play a minute, even in a game with a final margin of 49 points. Couldn’t guess what the deal is there.
Netherlands 68 - 58 USA (Women)
3:15am UK Time. Did not watch.
As much as I would have enjoyed watching this one, I could not justify a 3am start on a workday. Real shame, because it looks like I missed a great game between two heavyweights of the women’s division.
As myself and James discussed in our Paralympic Preview & Predictions episode, we think that the best two female players in the world were on show in this game. We also called that, despite the USA’s depth, versatility and shooting, they might not love their matchup against the Dutch team’s physicality.
I suppose we could be guilty of making some safe calls there, but it almost has the outline of us knowing what we’re talking about. In the battle of two of our Bench Units ‘Ones To Watch’ for Tokyo 2020 (check it out), Netherlands' Mariska Beijer (28 pts) got the upper hand on Rose Hollermann (14 pts).
Both star players got enough scoring support from teammates (NED: Kramer - 20, De Rooij - 10, USA: Zurbrugg - 20, Ryan - 14) to suggest that this game will be more than a 1-on-1 battle if the two teams are to meet again.
For me, the key stat is that the USA actually shot a better percentage than the Netherlands (48 vs 44), but got 10 fewer shot attempts. The Dutch know exactly who they are and get what they want out of possessions (only 4 turnovers), so trying to beat them while trailing in shots taken is a task that even the USA might struggle with.
Great Britain 54 - 73 Canada (Women)
6:45 UK Time
What. A. Performance.
Kady Dandeneau had indisputably the best individual performance of the opening day, as she racked up 32 points, 20 rebounds (!), and 11 assists. And here were me and James, putting together our Ones To Watch list last week, thinking “surely nobody cares enough what Bench Units have to say to be upset at getting left off”.
Apparently, Kady Dandeneau was upset. And, if she carries on playing like this, then rightly so.
Anyway, the game itself was close through the first half, with GB leading 29-26 at that point and the teams looking very evenly matched. GB weren't able to suppress the Canadian run at any point in the second half of the game and were outscored 25-47 from the break onwards, with none of their substitution patterns able to gain back any significant ground.
Fairly balanced scoring attack from GB, with all players who saw the court getting on the scoresheet, and six players finishing between 6 and 11 points. Even with the spread of scoring options, they weren’t able to match the individual firepower of Canada’s top offensive weapons.
Rosalie Lalonde's game might get a bit overshadowed here, given Dandeneau's statline, but she deserves a mention after putting up 20 points on 70% shooting.
As me and James mentioned in our preview podcast, we think this game may have implications for how the group shakes out. Barring anything surprising from China or Germany, we might have just seen Canada stake their claim to the top spot.
Australia 47 - 73 Japan (Women)
9am UK Time
I'd had some insider information on how this group might pan out, and that had lead me to believe that maybe this game wouldn't amount to much. The score might also make it look that way, but this game was a lot of fun to watch.
First off, Mari Amimoto posted the second triple-double in as many games (13 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists) and was generally the best player on the floor.
Secondly, Australia's bigs have some real potential, which is pretty impressive considering they lost their primary forward in Annabelle Lindsay to the classification rule changes. Their current team doesn't have enough across the board to threaten the contending teams in the tournament, but they've got some talent.
Whether Japan can put a scare into the more established teams will be worth keeping an eye on.
Spain 65 - 53 Republic of Korea (Men)
12:30pm UK Time
I hadn’t given a lot of thought to Korea, kind of assuming that they’d play their usual role of having just enough to give everybody a good game but not a lot more than that. My half-arsed research might yet turn out to be justified, as Korea stuck with Spain for about 37 minutes and ultimately couldn’t get it done but, even if that is the case, they made a pretty convincing case for themselves to be taken seriously.
Spain’s scoring came from the guys that you’d expect to carry them throughout the tournament (Garcia - 18, A. Zarzuela - 16, Ruiz - 16), but it’s worth noting that they got almost no contributions from anybody outside of their starting five. They can get away with it in games like this one, but it’s probably not sustainable as the games get bigger.
For Korea, they got a huge game out of Dong Hyeon Gim, who I always forget is absolutely the real deal. He had 24 points and 14 rebounds, and hit some huge shots to keep Korea within reach at various points of the game.
I had Korea missing out on the quarter-finals round, but seeing their consistent size give Spain some trouble today made me think that it’s completely realistic for them to steal a game and finish fourth in Group A.
Up Tomorrow…
Borrowing an old Bench Units gimmick that myself and Ben Fox (also in Tokyo - really need some colleagues who aren’t too good for me) used for the World Championships in 2018, I’m going to list out tomorrow’s schedule and my predictions for the results, based on almost nothing at all.
1am - USA vs Germany (Men) - USA by 23
1am - Germany vs Australia (Women) - Germany by 37
3:15am - Canada vs Spain (Men) - Spain by 9
3:15am - Japan vs Great Britain (Women) - GB by 11
6:45am - Great Britain vs Algeria (Men) - GB by 46
6:45am - Australia vs I.R. Iran (Men) - Australia by 17
9am - USA vs Spain (Women) - USA by 26
9am - Republic of Korea vs Turkey (Men) - Turkey by 6
12:30pm - China vs Netherlands (Women) - Netherlands by 16
12:30pm - Colombia vs Japan (Men) - Japan by 12
That’s all from me! If you’re staying up to watch, I salute you and get a life.
Thanks Mark! You're the real mvp
I am too scared to guess, but it‘s nice to have your predictions to have a inner conversation with that😆