NBA Standings Predictions: Eastern Conference
Advantage goes to all teams whose second or third best player can be bothered to show up to work.
Alright, let’s see if I remember how to do this. James here. In my younger and more vulnerable years, my- nah, I’m just kidding, I won’t make crashing in on Mark’s brain child to put forward some opinions any more about me than I need to. My job here is simple. To try and tell you in what order the teams of the NBA’s Eastern Conference will finish the season.
I feel like before I start, it’s important to outline a few things. Firstly, there are a few teams I just can’t bring myself to care about. This may lead to some misguided predictions, especially near the bottom of the standings. Secondly, the top of the standings could shake out completely differently to how I see it, mostly based on the following:
Whether or not Kyrie Irving develops self-awareness and antibodies.
Whether Ben Simmons develops self-awareness, antibodies, and a fifteen foot jump shot.
With all that said, let’s get started. I’ll be going from 15-1 just like Mark did, because the only thing that says ‘serial killer behaviour’ more than starting at 15 is me switching it up.
#15 - Detroit Pistons
James’s Take: The Pistons won 20 games last year in the hopes of tanking their way to the bottom in order to draft Cade Cunningham. Mission accomplished. The rest of their off season consisted of… signing Kelly Olynyk? They also got rid of Mason Plumlee, which is a plus, and Sekou Doumbouya, who should have been alright but was not.
Their plan to be good this year is to put the ball in the hands of a potential future superstar, who can shoot, pass dribble, create, and has already shown flashes of being the real deal. However, he has an ankle injury and- stop me if you’ve heard this one before- they’re going to be extra cautious with him and hold him out until he is absolutely ready, and presumably until they’ve lost enough games to find his teammate of the future.
Mark’s Take: There are real reasons to be optimistic about Detroit going forward, it’s just important to note that not that many of them apply to this season. When I saw you’d ranked them #15, I tried to think of who could actually take this spot from them and concluded that, outside of the Orlando Magic’s usual effort to lower their bar further, they’ve probably got this one locked up.
I really like Cade and hope he doesn’t get the Zion bubblewrap treatment you alluded to. I’m also high on Isaiah Steward and Saddiq Bey from last year. If you think Killian Hayes is anything more than a reserve-calibre guard, they actually have the bones of something good here. So much so that it wouldn’t surprise me if Jerami Grant - *ahem* - volunteers himself to get the hell out of there and let the young guys play.
#14 - Orlando Magic
James’s Take: The Orlando Magic have shown this preseason that they’ll be a fun team full of young, athletic guys with lots of promise for the future, but I doubt they’ll give me much to care about in the present. Jalen Suggs has the talent to make a difference in years to come, and Franz Wagner is also there. Their two lottery picks combined with a returning cast of Cole Anthony, Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz might make for some Instagram worthy highlights, but I’m not sure it’ll translate to wins.
Mark’s Take: I was cautiously optimistic that the Magic could, at the very least, follow in the footsteps of last year’s (at least the first half of last year’s) OKC Thunder and actually rack up some wins as a result of teams not taking them seriously. And then, two things happened.
First up, Franz Wagner - this year’s No. 8 pick in the draft - damaged his value enough in the pre-season that he might be the best value long-term TopShot rookie in the whole of basketball. Secondly, Orlando just threw a $50-million dollar extension at Wendell Carter Jr, the No. 7 pick in the 2018 draft. That doesn’t seem like a terrible move in isolation until you consider that they had him for 22 games last year, and have chosen to extend him over Mo Bamba, who they drafted 6th in that very same draft and plays the same position as Carter. Shambles.
#13 - Cleveland Cavaliers
James’s Take: Does anyone need any bigs? Cleveland have somehow ended up with a collection of big guys in Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markannen and first-year big man Evan Mobley who I think could be good in years to come, as well as Kevin Love, who if nothing else is good for a few hall of fame tantrums a season.
This season will be all about seeing which combination of three other guys works best around Colin Sexton and Darius Garland (or Sexland, as they became known by the middle of last season), both now and looking towards the future. It will also be about getting rid of the guys who aren’t helping in return for draft picks, as well as actively trying to make their own draft pick better by being bad in professional basketball games.
Mark’s Take: First up, I think there’s a real chance that Mobley ends up the best player to come out of this draft. I should caveat that by saying that I think that will happen when he becomes a Bam Adebayo-style hyper-mobile Center, which might not be on the cards this year, seeing as they’ve just thrown $100-million at Jarrett Allen.
I always liked Garland but became a bit worried that he was more of a third guard than any team’s centrepiece. That concern was somewhat addressed when he went on a tear to end last season, and it could only get sweeter as he gets to work with Mobley instead of still-very-handsome-while-pouting Kevin Love. I don’t love his fit with Sexton and apparently neither do the Cavs, seeing as how they’ve declined to offer Sexton an extension in sheer disregard for the numbers he put up last season.
#12 - Washington Wizards
James’s Take: While I am normally a proponent of the ‘not having Westbrook on your team will make you better’ theory, I’m not convinced by a starting five of Dinwiddie, Beal, Kuzma, Hachimura and Bryant. It should be enough to win some games as they now have a handful of competent basketball players who don’t need to take over games and miss threes to feel like they’re doing their job.
I feel like them dropping back from 8th last year seems harsh, but it’s more to do with the teams in front of them developing than them getting worse, I think. I’m also hedging against Beal scoring 31 a game again and asking to be traded halfway through the year.
Mark’s Take: Can’t say I agree with you on this one. Washington made the playoffs last year despite having about 3.5 competent NBA players in their rotation, and this year they have at least 9 guys who can man their spots. I agree that the bottom end of the East playoff picture has gotten a bit meatier, but I think you can make the argument that the ‘Zards have a higher floor than at least a couple of the teams you have ranked above them.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Wiz struggle out of the gate but, to me, they seem far more capable of putting together a surprise winning streak at some point in the year than any of the other teams in this tier, and that might be enough to get them into the play-in game.
Of course, if Beal gets traded, none of this matters.
#11 - Indiana Pacers
James’s Take: This is where things get… I won’t say interesting, because that’s up to the 4 people who will read this, but at least there are some stakes involved. I have the Pacers in the last spot outside the play-in tournament. This is mostly because their two most important players both effectively play the same position. If Rick Carlisle is going to play two bigs in Sabonis and Turner like the Pacers have in the past, they’re severely lacking players to set the table, as Warren, Holiday and LeVert will all potentially miss time at the start of the season.
Rick Carlisle teams are normally made up of one rim running big and shooters, so it will be interesting to see if they start badly and look to move on from one of their star big men. Also, if TJ Warren from the bubble makes a comeback, none of this matters and they’ll probably go 82-0 and bring the Larry O’Brien back to Indiana.
Mark’s Take: If Indiana was fully healthy, I’d be disagreeing hard on this one. I think they stand to benefit more from their offseason coaching switch than any other team. It’s the double benefit of the new coach being objectively better than the old one while also not being someone that the whole team despises. I agree that this group doesn’t follow the usual Carlisle blueprint, but he is a certified offensive warlock and wanted to try his hand with this roster. He’ll make it work.
It’s just the health thing. The ideal starting lineup of Turner/Sabonis/Warren/LeVert/Brogdon is easily good enough to be in the mix for the #6 seed and clearing the play-in totally. If Carlisle can cobble together lineups all year to get them healthy in the playoffs, whoever draws these guys had better saddle up.
#10 - Toronto Raptors
James’s Take: Ladies and Gentlemen, we have made it to the play-in tournament spots. The Toronto Raptors are a far cry from the team that won a championship a few years ago, and in trading Kyle Lowry they’ve lost the face of the franchise of the last decade.
Depending on when Pascal Siakam returns form injury, they’ll be able to roll out a starting lineup of Dragic, VanVleet, Anunoby, Siakam, and Birch, which should be able to play competitive basketball and keep them in the hunt for the play-in, and their ceiling depends on whether or not VanVleet can assume the Lowry role of finding and maintaining the team’s identity, and if Siakam can return to anywhere near the level of his All-Star year.
Mark’s Take: Man, would I love to see Toronto back in the picture after a stinker of a season last year. Siakam is a guy that everyone seems to have given up on after 18 months of grim circumstances, and could well be back to form. While I like some of the talent here, I don’t know if even Nick Nurse can guide this amorphous roster to winning consistently. I have no doubt he’ll get deep into his bag of tricks whenever the occasion calls for it, but I think that’s as much to do with this team’s lack of identity as it was to do with his glory days team’s ability to seamlessly shapeshift.
I’d love Toronto to make the playoffs, but I think their best path back to relevance is to consolidate some of these overlapping complementary players into a trade for a star. If the Wizards end up above them in the standings by mid-season, maybe they can try and pull off a Beal trade at that point?
#9 - Charlotte Hornets
I know, I know. I’m well aware that I’m getting ahead of myself on this one, and I’ll admit this is the prediction I’m most likely to be very wrong about, but this is partly a projection of what I want to see happen this year.
They were the biggest surprise in the Eastern Conference last year, with Rozier and Hayward providing enough scoring to keep them afloat, as well as getting good production from Bridges and Washington. What really made the difference last year was how great LaMelo Ball was, and this year will depend on if he takes another leap or not. If his shooting takes a little jump or he gets to the basket more, this team could challenge for the last playoff spot. I also think Oubre Jr and Bouknight are fun additions. If nothing else, they’ll be a lot of fun to watch.
Mark’s Take: I’d love to be on board here, I really would. They almost had me on the bandwagon, as I really like both the Bouknight and the Kai Jones picks. Then they traded for Mason Plumlee, so I’m out.
I’m not truly out, but I don’t see it happening for the Hornets this early. James Borrego might be the most underrated coach in the NBA, but I feel like he maximised the roster last year and then some. Combine that with the fact that LaMelo might well take the Ja Morant route of getting more consistent rather than making the jump to outright superstar in Year 2, and that Hayward always misses a chunk of the season, and I don’t see the ceiling for this team as being drastically higher.
Make no mistake, there will be highlights.
#8 - Chicago Bulls
James’s Take: We have reached the ‘might be good, might be bad, will probably be fun’ section of my predictions. The Bulls flipped from ‘kinda rebuilding’ to ‘the guy who runs the team is sick of us being bad’ very quickly, and their new-look starting five of Ball, LaVine, DeRozan, Williams and Vucevic is their latest attempt at relevance. If things break right for this team, I could see them being one or two spots higher up purely based on offense, but they could also concede 120 points a game, even with the defense of Williams, and the new additions of Ball and Caruso. To summarise: they’ll be fun to watch, but I also have doubts about their ability to stay on the court, and their ability to stay in front of people when they are there.
Mark’s Take: My days, has it been hard to be a DeRozan optimist against the grain for the last couple of years. The DeRozan/Aldridge pairing in San Antonio was widely and justifiably panned by anyone who bothered to watch the post-Kawhi Spurs, and yet I find myself optimistic still.
First of all, this version of Vucevic might be about as good as any edition of LaMarcus Aldridge outside of his 2014 playoff detonation against Houston. That guy has every offensive tool in the box, and is surrounded by guys who can create for him in a way that Elfrid Payton and Shelvin Mack (really, they were Orlando’s guards) never could.
I have no doubt that the defense will be horrific, but so are about 22 NBA defenses in every regular season. The difference is that most teams with bad defenses do not have the offensive options that the Bulls do. Honestly, I’m glad you did the East rankings just to stop me from putting these guys at the #4 seed.
#7 - New York Knicks
James’s Take: This brings us to my first ‘Were they actually good?’ team of the year (I promise I actually like some teams involved in the National Basketball Association). Defense won’t be a problem. Last year, the Knicks led the league in defense, and I trust any Tom Thibodeau squad to be able to get some stops, but they had to work to get every point they scored last season and were mostly kept afloat by Julius Randle being better than I ultimately think he is.
Will Walker and Fournier bring enough offense to give the Knicks some scoring punch? Or will this take their defense back a step without making up for it on the other side of the ball? As long as somebody else takes a few contested mid-range jump shots to help Randle out, that’s all I care about. He looks so tired all the time.
Mark’s Take: The Knicks were also my ‘were they actually good?’ team! I settled on the conclusion that they were only as good as it took to win the complete vacuum for last year’s #4 seed in the East.
In support of them, they’ve certainly done what they can to address their offensive creation issues from last year. If the Kemba and Fournier signings were given to any other coach, I’d call it a step in the right direction.
One way or another, the Knicks will lead the NBA in fouls per game this year. Either because Kemba and Fournier are having to foul because they can’t guard their guys, or because Thibs will demand a team foul after every offensive possession so he can make an offense/defense sub.
#6 - Miami Heat
James’s Take: This offseason, the Miami Heat signed potentially the two most ‘Miami Heat’ players available to them in Kyle Lowry and PJ Tucker. Say what you want about ‘Heat Culture’, but those guys know who they are, and they know who fits in with what they believe in. The new-look Heat starting five will look something like Lowry, Robinson, Butler, Tucker and Adebayo.
I can see this team picking up wins in the regular season purely by playing harder than the other team on a random Tuesday night, and by grinding out wins with a combination of defense and Erik Spoelstra working his magic to create shots on the other end, but ultimately they have the look of a really tough 5 game first-round exit in the playoffs.
Mark’s Take: You pick this one with alarming confidence. Given that the two Butler-era Miami teams have made the Finals in one year and been swept in the first round the next, I’d say that their actual quality is somewhere in between, and it’s pretty tough to gauge.
I think there’s a real chance that they end up higher than this, if for no other reason than that they’re a group of no-nonsense veterans who don’t take games off. I had them pegged as battling with some incarnation of Philly for the #3. Maybe they don’t put enough stock in the regular season to really pursue that, but I think I would call them the safest bet to advance to the second round outside of Milwaukee or Brooklyn.
#5 - Boston Celtics
James’s Take: The new-look Boston Celtics have made wholesale changes over the summer, including promoting Brad Stevens from head coach to GM, hiring Ime Udoka, a much sought after coach for his first head coaching job, and making several personnel changes. They got rid of Walker, Fournier and Thompson, and have signed Schroeder, Al Horford, Josh Richardson, Enes Kanter and Juancho Hernangomez. The bet they’re making is based on the fact that Brown and Tatum were the only two guys they had last year that could put the ball in the basket consistently, so Brad Stevens’s first job as a GM was to try and improve the supporting cast.
The Celtics can roll out some incredible defensive lineups and could really shut some teams down by running Smart, Brown, Tatum, Richardson and Williams, but the big question is if the supporting cast can chip in enough on the other end.
Mark’s Take: Hey, remember when the Celtics were billed as “the future of the Eastern Conference” circa 2018? Well, despite the fact that their two best players are leaps and bounds better than they were three years ago, there’s been a whole lot of no movement on that front.
I do believe there’s some low-hanging fruit for these guys to pick in order to improve, primarily involving a less your-turn/my-turn offense between Tatum and Brown and some guys actually making some shots. If new coach Ime Udoka can do anything about either of these aspects, maybe Boston will be better than I expect, but until then they strike me as two stars and a bunch of guys who are better in theory than in practice.
#4 - Atlanta Hawks
James’s Take: I’ve seen a lot of people predicting the Atlanta Hawks as third in the east, at least in part due to their playoff performance last year. The other side of the argument being presented goes along the lines of ‘they beat the Knicks who are bad, and the 76ers, who we’ll get to’.
Last season, Trae Young established himself as an NBA offense on his own, and as a top tier NBA villain, but this year will be the real test to see if the Hawks are a real contender at the top of the Eastern Conference. Will their deep playoff run help them build towards being ‘for real’, or was it an anomaly in a weird year? Either way, they’ll hopefully be around for years to come.
Mark’s Take: I actually think the answer to both sides of your question is “yes”. The Hawks got to the Conference Finals by showing up the Knicks and then pulling out a Game 7 win against a 76ers team that was intent on beating itself. Maybe they shouldn’t have gotten there at all, but it doesn’t mean they can’t reap the benefits of the fact that they did.
For me, the most ‘for real’ indicator of this team is that they pulled out an on-the-road elimination-game win in which their one-man-offense was held to 5/24 shooting by Ben Simmons. How many supporting casts in the entire league are capable of that? Not to mention that De’Andre Hunter (their second-best player for a good stretch of the season) wasn’t around for the playoffs and forgotten lottery pick Cam Reddish was only just working his way back into the rotation.
The Hawks could absolutely be legitimate, and might well get a home-court advantage slot in the standings. I still have questions about certain playoff matchups for them, but we can worry about that when we get there.
#3 - Philadelphia 76ers
James’s Take: Anyone who has been following the NBA in the last year will probably be sick of talking about Ben Simmons, but I’m going to do it a bit more because how the Eastern Conference shakes out might depend on him. Not whether he learns to shoot, or whether he learns how to co-exist with Joel Embiid, but simply whether or not he actually exists with Embiid at all. After crashing out of the playoffs playing like Charles Barkley playing a pick-up game in Space Jam, he then decided to demand a trade as to control his own destiny, getting ahead of the team trading him. I have no problem with that, I just think he’s a bit misguided on how best to get traded (show up and act up, a la James Harden), and both he and the team are very much overestimating his value on the trade market.
No one knows how many years are left of Embiid’s prime, so if the 76ers are going to move Simmons, it’ll be for a win-now player, and I’m not sure that trade is out there yet -as more players become available, I do predict they’ll find a destination for him. For now my prediction is the 3 seed based on a combination of Embiid being unstoppable on both ends, and the team’s second best player either not playing, or playing for a team who don’t like him and who he doesn’t like. If he can show up to work and figure it out until the new year, they’ll be right around where they were last year.
Mark’s Take: My biggest gripe with the whole Simmons saga is that nobody seems to point out that they have another All-Defense, No-Offense team candidate on their roster in Matisse Thybulle, and that’s basically all Simmons was last year. Just plug ‘Tisse in and roll to another #1 seed like you did last year. What’s so complicated about that?
All the Simmons talk has caused everyone to knock Philly down the standings and below both Milwaukee and Brooklyn in the regular season, and I have to say I don’t fully understand why. It’s almost fundamentally impossible to be anything other than an above-average defense as long as Embiid is around, and I’d even say I think their offense can be addition-by-subtraction without Simmons loitering around. Don’t be surprised if they ignore the whole Simmons situation and put the league on notice while doing it.
#2 - Brooklyn Nets
James’s Take: So, originally my plan was to put the Bucks here, and it was all part of a massive conspiracy theory that I don’t really believe about potentially the greatest tank job of all time. As you will have seen, Kyrie Irving has not been vaccinated, and has been told he can not practice or play home games in the state of New York. This led me to wonder if the Bucks would tank to the 2 seed, in the hope that they would play the Nets in the Eastern Conference finals and Kyrie, the Net’s 3rd star, would be unavailable for 4 out of the 7 games. The Bucks would play the first two games with no Kyrie, the next two at home, and so on and so forth.
Since then, Kyrie has been told that he can’t be a part of the team all season unless he reconsiders his position, so that’s my theory out the window. Coming back down to earth, I think a starting 5 of James Harden, Kevin Durant, Joe Harris, LaMarcus Aldridge, and some combination of Bruce Brown, Patty Mills, Paul Millsap, Cam Thomas, DeAndre’ Bembry and company is still good enough for the second-best record in the East. Kevin Durant might be the best player in the world, and ‘James Harden + 4 strangers’ normally gets a team to the playoffs, so I figure a combination of those two, a really well built supporting cast and some good coaching will take them there.
Mark’s Take: Everything you’ve written here makes sense. I find the entire Kyrie saga some combination of exhausting and nauseating, as I would with anyone who is angling to be the “voice of the voiceless” while collecting $16-million dollars to stay home from work. Kyrie drama aside, I don’t see how the Nets finish any lower than second unless they make a conscious effort to mail in the regular season, and even then they might not be able to put out Bench Units that are bad enough to lose on some nights.
Ultimately, I find it really hard to root for the Nets. Kyrie makes me emotionally nauseous, KD wanted to lead a team that was truly his to a title and made it nine games with the Nets before he decided they could do with bringing in Harden to help out, and Harden is only here through entirely self-centred actions that he hopes everyone will forget about with time. I’m far too petty for that.
Ultimately, the most intriguing angle to follow the Nets is that KD and Harden have given the nod to the team to allow them to go ahead without Kyrie. If they made it through the whole year and won the title, it might drive him to retire.
#1 - Milwaukee Bucks
James’s Take: Last year’s NBA champions, and my prediction for the top spot in the East this year, I have little reason to believe that the Bucks won’t rack up the wins in the regular season. I have my doubts about how they’ll do in the playoffs this year, but that’s for another long-winded article in 6 months time. They are maybe one of the least respected NBA champions in a long time, through a combination of people not being sure they’ve overcome the problems they had last year, and them not having had the toughest route to the finals in NBA history.
All that being said, they’re well set up to win from game one. They have a similar core to last year (we’ll see how much they’ll miss PJ Tucker), a great defense, and an MVP level player in Giannis who competes on both ends every night and is just off the back of winning an NBA championship in which he seems to have figured some things out. These things all seem to point in the direction of a team primed to get on a roll and win enough games to top the conference.
Mark’s Take: Just to get this out of the way, I don’t for a second believe that last year’s Bucks would have beaten a Nets team whose 3 superstars made them seem built to withstand a superstar injury. The Nets would have won the series if either Harden or Kyrie had been around to help KD carry the load. Assuming the Kyrie doesn’t play all season, the Nets two remaining stars plus improved depth might be better than the Bucks.
However, the Bucks showed themselves to peak when they got to the NBA Finals, and that wave of momentum is real. I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out looking unfamiliar with the concept of losing to start the season. Grayson Allen was an underrated acquisition, and the combination of him and DiVincenzo means the Bucks might lead the league in the (admittedly niche) category of technical fouls drawn on opposing Shooting Guards.
Why might they not get the top seed? They might not be all that bothered about it. Finishing third last year worked out pretty well. Unless they actively want to try and follow that path, I’d say the #1 seed is there until proved otherwise.